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The topic is interesting; I also used to think about it a lot. However, I think we should consider not just one specific castle, but pairs of them. Let me explain with an example. In my experience (which is subjective and just an example in this thread), it turned out that the Swamp beats the Stronghold, but loses to the Tower. The Tower beats the Stronghold, but loses to the Swamp. The Swamp beats the Tower, but loses to the Stronghold. Again, please don't criticize the example; everyone has their own approach, but haven't you observed similar situations?