Good versus Evil - II

Here's a simple example.
The draw determines that you're playing against Alexeagle. What's the probability that Alexeagle will be the winner? Correct, it's close to zero.
The draw determines that you're playing against, for example, Stefandmy. What's the probability that Stefandmy will be the winner? Somewhere around 30%.
The draw determines that you're playing against, for example, BOLIVAR, Boez. What's the probability that BOLIVAR, Boez will be the winner? Probably around 40%.
Or against Will/Sir_Moz/Ekzekutor. The outcome of the game (win/loss) has an equal chance (50/50).
So, where's the role of the coin toss here?
The strongest will still win...

The role of the coin toss is simple: in the example you provided, you might play against Alexeagle and, in your opinion, have a 100% chance (let's say 70%) of advancing. The other player will then play against a stronger opponent and have a lower chance (let's say 60%) of advancing. Consequently, you'll have a better chance of advancing further. The difference between 1st and 2nd place will be those famous 10%. So, a simple coin toss immediately gives someone a 10% advantage. Of course, there are exceptions to the rule, but this rule will apply to a large number of tournaments. I believe this coefficient can work because if you beat players A and B, who ultimately take 1st and 2nd place in their group, that's better than your opponent, who scores the same number of points as you but loses to A and B. In my opinion, it's an objective indicator. I understand that this wasn't stated in this particular tournament, but there was also nothing about the coin toss, so you can quite easily apply any system you like.
P.S. I'm flattered, of course, when I'm given such chances (even theoretically).
BUT, I would personally assess my chances against the strong players in this tournament at no more than 40% at the moment, and my chances against the "noobs" at 20-30%:smile02: