Wicc
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The restructuring only works in SoD.
A bit of math - the chance that there will be exactly 2 towns with GM5 on the map = (6/10)^8 * (4/10)^2 * (10 * 9 / 2) = 12%.
I estimate the chance that both players will reach GM5 as no more than 30%.
I estimate the chance that players will build GM5 in different towns as no more than 30%.
We also need to add the chance that players won't find control in other places, let's say no more than 30% as well.
Multiplying these probabilities, we get the chance of the described The_ event to be no more than 0.3%.
A bit of math - the chance that there will be exactly 2 towns with GM5 on the map = (6/10)^8 * (4/10)^2 * (10 * 9 / 2) = 12%.
I estimate the chance that both players will reach GM5 as no more than 30%.
I estimate the chance that players will build GM5 in different towns as no more than 30%.
We also need to add the chance that players won't find control in other places, let's say no more than 30% as well.
Multiplying these probabilities, we get the chance of the described The_ event to be no more than 0.3%.
