The average is 40, so he himself said that the monster would win, and yes, the moral of the story is that sometimes it wins, sometimes it doesn't – it's unpredictable.

In a simple battle, the monster might win, but it might also lose (and I don't know the probability of that; I don't have such knowledge in the field of theoretical probability).
But I don't think it's right to take a simple battle as an example, because then Arch's speed, which is actually his advantage, doesn't bring him any benefits. Therefore, in a battle where Arch, using his speed, first waits, the monster's maximum result will be a draw.

So, it's