When you have a selection of at least 20 games with gr fakes, I will carefully consider your position.
In the physical mig I didn't find the chance of building air elementals from the start, but it seems to be less than 25%, and from that draw your own conclusions.
As for less than 25%, that information is incorrect; I just consulted with Sav, he says the chance of building the second level is 30% and it does not depend on the town.