Redwhait
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What do you mean they will almost never stand? If air elementals are built, the fairy upgrade will be done every time, especially since it costs next to nothing on its own. And upgraded fairies are certainly less time-consuming than unupgraded ones. Unless, of course, you’re using them to chase down hordes of dendroids.
I played Conflux twice in Outlaw, and both times I upgraded the fairies. One time air elementals were built, the other time it was 8xm8a, where birds aren’t really a consideration. Both times I simply sent heroes in different directions — one hero with upgraded fairies, another hero with air elementals and a few unupgraded fairies. So from week 1, day 1-2 or week 1, day 1-3, you can fully and independently clear two directions from each other. Other towns can only afford that with a fast cons.
But overall, you could run a mini tournament purely for Conflux (we had one like that for Tower once), allow all upgrades there, and see what comes of it. Though it would be best to use the widest possible template pool.
Once you have a collection of at least 20 games with upgraded fairies, I’ll carefully consider your position.
In Physical Medium, I didn’t find the chance to build air elementals from the start, but it seems to be less than 25%, and draw your own conclusions from that.
8xm8a is also a good example — Conflux doesn’t work there at all; even with upgraded fairies, it will lose to many towns in most cases.