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I apologize, I'm currently short on time, so I'm reading the thread somewhat superficially and sometimes struggling to keep up with your thoughts.
If you were in the Mafia's position, and you preferred the Broodmother's ultimate ability over Onyx's, then I don't know, just leave.
I would, as the Mafia, use both ultimates if possible, and then look for the Rider. I just don't see the point of a Mafia block on the first night...
I don't quite understand why you consider Tox to be Mafia just for calculating the Mafia's moves.
I'd like to see Mika's version of the solution; does anyone know why he's practically absent from the thread? Is he also IRL?
Added after 37 seconds
Okay. It seems we've decided that there was a distraction on the second night, with a good probability. Because there's no Journalist poll.
But why didn't they kill the Journalist this night then?