Heroes of Might and Magic V [Game Discussion]

Based on experience, it's about half.

I can't help but agree with the examples provided, and therefore, the probability assessments. However, I've encountered a distribution of one hit for every two misses (a total of 2 hits out of 4 misses), which allows us to estimate the probability, with some assumptions, as 1/2, but closer to 1/3. To avoid delving into esotericism, it would be best to look at the original source.