Mafia 93. In the Name of the Moon! ☾

So, it seems that the Shaman, who knows the Snowman well, doesn't want to execute him based on psychological reasoning, while Tox, on the contrary, wants to, also based on psychological reasoning. What is the probability that Tox is a bad guy who is manipulating us all and playing his own game? Or, what is the probability that the Shaman and the Snowman are on the same team, and this isn't just a simple town game? By the way, if 9 people are currently voting to execute the Snowman, and the Shaman is indeed a good guy, then, plus or minus, the "goodness" of the Snowman is reflected in the number of voters, not counting the serial killer, at least 1 negative vote...