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Morning, instead of killing with armor penetration, wouldn't it be better to use a check that carries the risk of losing protection, especially in the Mafia role?
Yes.
And I didn't understand your reasoning about probabilities. Haynes is suitable for 8 peaceful roles and 4 Mafia roles, so the probability of randomly hitting a Mafia member when she is executed is 4 / (4 + 8) = 1/3. And for the others, it is 5/16, which is slightly less.
Clear.
And yes, she could easily be a blocked killer.
No. Because, based on your theory, combined with the votes and their justifications, it gives off a bad vibe to me.