Larisa
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Rawlith, I don't quite understand your point about Heroist and Nebo, and why they definitely aren't Mafia. Could you explain it differently?
As for the Military and the Mafia, here are some possible scenarios:
1) The Military redirected the Mafia's killer, and the Mafia blocked Alex. The fact that Alex was blocked for the second time in a row can be explained by the Mafia not wanting to give the town extra information with their block, which is quite logical. But why did the Military redirect specifically to Alex? Because he knew that Alex was definitely a Town member, and wanted to weaken the Town. It should be noted that if this continues, both the Town and the Mafia will be in a rather bad position. We need to figure out the Military as soon as possible.
2) The Military redirected the Mafia's blocker, and the Mafia killed Alex. In this case, the Military wanted Alex to be mistaken for the Serial Killer because of the block without a kill from the latter (he may have found the blocker the previous night), or he was simply guided by the same logic as in the previous point. And the Mafia killed Alex because the Town knew that he was almost certainly not Mafia. This option is clearly better for the Mafia than the previous one (the blocker is not very useful), and for the Town, it's hard to say.
3) A point that includes all fundamentally different and unlikely scenarios.
The fact that the Serial Killer used redirection instead of killing for the second time means one of two things:
1) This night, events unfolded according to point 1 (see above), and the Serial Killer figured out the Mafia's killer the previous night.
2) The Serial Killer is a very indecisive player (didn't use the kill without leaving evidence!), or a newbie playing for the first time and not fully understanding the game.
In the first case, it could be anyone. And here, the Mafia can be very helpful to the Town (and this happens!) - they can help us figure out the Serial Killer. Dear Mafia, you understand what position you are in, right? If the Serial Killer is not executed in time, all that remains for you is to wait for him to cut you with your own hands. That's all for the first case. And in the second case, the Mafia is doing pretty well. But we can also make assumptions about who might be the Serial Killer based on psychology. I don't think it's Heroist or OhFF. Knowing them, I think they would rather go for the kill. I'm less sure about Nebo, but I think so too. Rawlith doesn't seem like an indecisive person either, although I don't know what to expect from him. That leaves Hexan and Ghost. Neither of them inspires confidence, but I suspect Ghost more. I'm about 80% sure that he's a negative role (Serial Killer or Mafia). Therefore, for now, execute forgotten ghost. Tomorrow I'll try to guess the role, but I'm telling you right away, the chances of success are small. You try too, maybe you'll find something. Master, I really ask you not to close the day early! Good night everyone!
Added 10 minutes later
The Eagle Feather could have come to the Master's mind simply because of the nickname Alexeagle, so maybe it's not worth focusing on this option. But I agree, it somehow stands out. There could also be the quote about the chessboard at the very beginning, right?
As for the Military and the Mafia, here are some possible scenarios:
1) The Military redirected the Mafia's killer, and the Mafia blocked Alex. The fact that Alex was blocked for the second time in a row can be explained by the Mafia not wanting to give the town extra information with their block, which is quite logical. But why did the Military redirect specifically to Alex? Because he knew that Alex was definitely a Town member, and wanted to weaken the Town. It should be noted that if this continues, both the Town and the Mafia will be in a rather bad position. We need to figure out the Military as soon as possible.
2) The Military redirected the Mafia's blocker, and the Mafia killed Alex. In this case, the Military wanted Alex to be mistaken for the Serial Killer because of the block without a kill from the latter (he may have found the blocker the previous night), or he was simply guided by the same logic as in the previous point. And the Mafia killed Alex because the Town knew that he was almost certainly not Mafia. This option is clearly better for the Mafia than the previous one (the blocker is not very useful), and for the Town, it's hard to say.
3) A point that includes all fundamentally different and unlikely scenarios.
The fact that the Serial Killer used redirection instead of killing for the second time means one of two things:
1) This night, events unfolded according to point 1 (see above), and the Serial Killer figured out the Mafia's killer the previous night.
2) The Serial Killer is a very indecisive player (didn't use the kill without leaving evidence!), or a newbie playing for the first time and not fully understanding the game.
In the first case, it could be anyone. And here, the Mafia can be very helpful to the Town (and this happens!) - they can help us figure out the Serial Killer. Dear Mafia, you understand what position you are in, right? If the Serial Killer is not executed in time, all that remains for you is to wait for him to cut you with your own hands. That's all for the first case. And in the second case, the Mafia is doing pretty well. But we can also make assumptions about who might be the Serial Killer based on psychology. I don't think it's Heroist or OhFF. Knowing them, I think they would rather go for the kill. I'm less sure about Nebo, but I think so too. Rawlith doesn't seem like an indecisive person either, although I don't know what to expect from him. That leaves Hexan and Ghost. Neither of them inspires confidence, but I suspect Ghost more. I'm about 80% sure that he's a negative role (Serial Killer or Mafia). Therefore, for now, execute forgotten ghost. Tomorrow I'll try to guess the role, but I'm telling you right away, the chances of success are small. You try too, maybe you'll find something. Master, I really ask you not to close the day early! Good night everyone!
Added 10 minutes later
The Eagle Feather could have come to the Master's mind simply because of the nickname Alexeagle, so maybe it's not worth focusing on this option. But I agree, it somehow stands out. There could also be the quote about the chessboard at the very beginning, right?
Твоя очередь говорить, наша - слушать.