"Newcomer-2014. Winter"

IMHO Jebus Cross is no less a dispersion template; 50% of it depends on how the spawn is laid out, what the GO will be, what the Dragon Utopias give, and considering the game pace of current newcomers on SMKA, the eighth player would be the same, probably ending by turn 400. So, although I was against SMKA in my time, now I understand that it's the only correct option in beginner groups.

That's the thing: on Jebus Cross, there are plenty (though I won't rule out that it only seems plenty but actually isn't) of weakly interdependent random factors, and central limit theorems haven't been repealed, so overall the deviation from the "average distribution" isn't that great. On the other hand, sometimes they are "quite strongly" interdependent. (For example, a poor respawn, but a bunch of goodies nearby in treasure, yet a very nasty GO that either requires heavy losses to break through with no further ability to claim the goodies, or can't be broken through, and the opponent takes the goodies.)
Also, on Jebus Cross, it's often enough to evaluate your own respawn, which is more or less feasible to do in the first few days, and count solely on reaching treasure, assuming that treasure will have what's needed. On SMKA, however, the contents of secondary towns and native treasure zones, which can't be realistically evaluated in the first few days, have a strong impact. The result may be a rich respawn, but everything else is worthless, leading to failure.
All this is IMHO, of course.