"Newcomer-2014. Winter"

Here's how I think about it: Yes, the dispersion pattern is a factor, but if a player doesn't leave the group during the skirmish, they're unlikely to make it into the top 3, which means we don't need to worry about them not leaving the group according to the schedule. In short, the idea is that the contenders for the top 99% will leave the groups even on dispersion patterns.