I did a quick Google search, and I didn't say that the Maidan is to blame or that manual control isn't to blame. A combination of factors leads us to the saying: we have what we have.
What affects the exchange rate?
Like any price, the exchange rate is subject to deviations from its value base, which occur under the influence of supply and demand, which depend on many factors. The exchange rate is related to a large number of economic categories: price, value, money, balance of payments, and others. All factors are very closely related, and it is impossible to single out any dominant one. The main ones are:
Inflation rate
Balance of payments
Difference in interest rates in different countries
Functioning of foreign exchange markets and the implementation of speculative foreign exchange operations
The level of confidence in the national currency in the domestic and foreign markets
Currency policy
National income
Conjunctive factors
So, to be so categorical, that only one person on the forum understands currency fluctuations, and the rest are just dust, I wouldn't.
And regarding imports and exports, Google is also helpful. I didn't exaggerate, but rather understated. In 2013, imports exceeded exports, and what follows from this, I think, I don't need to explain to such a pro (absolutely without sarcasm, because it is clear that there is understanding).
As a financier, I don't understand what you Googled or what you meant by this post? Maybe you can find at least one more person on the forum who understood?
I am more inclined to think that this is generally a third topic, different from the dependence of the dollar exchange rate on impoverishment or manual control of the exchange rate, and who is to blame for this.
It doesn't matter what the reasons for the exchange rate fluctuations are; in our case, if the dollar rises, then the dollar-denominated goods imported lose their competitiveness. Dollar economies are not interested in the dollar rising too much in certain markets, because they will start importing from Asia and Europe; these are large market mechanisms that we are somehow trying to project onto the Maidan without understanding the basics and proving our rightness to the teeth or until we turn green.
Here, for example, is the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate:
in Ukraine: 25.11.13 - 8.22; 24.01.14 - 8.55, an increase of 4%
and in Russia: 25.11.13 - 32.9; 24.01.14 - 34.2, an increase of 4%
So, is there also a Maidan there? Poor Russians, our Maidan made them poorer too.
Added 9 minutes ago
Ukrainian potatoes, carrots, etc. - either of good quality from a private farmer, or with nitrates, phosphates, etc. A private farmer won't ship three bags to Europe, but they have plenty of their own with nitrates. So, where is the export?
We don't need to read about specialization. It is enough to look at how much and what the industry produces. One airplane in two years. A serious bid for foreign exchange earnings for the country. If they could do something, they either have forgotten how or no one needs it. There is no progress in science, and even less in production. As much as I would like it, I cannot name a single industry that would be considered advanced (of course, except for confectionery, meat and dairy, where everything is at a level - all based on chemistry). So, what kind of competition, especially with the West, where productivity is many times higher?? So, all that remains is Russia, from which we are trying to distance ourselves.
And do we need to understand currency fluctuations when it is obvious that higher activity in the Euromaidan leads to a higher exchange rate? Ask people who buy dollars, different people, why they do it. The priority is political instability. And there is no need to be a super-duper financier in this case; the current dollar exchange rate is purely the merit of the Euromaidan.
Somehow, we switched to potato exports. That is, a private farmer will ship three bags to Russia, but not to Poland? Or let him ship chemistry to Russia; there is enough of his own chemistry in Europe? Honestly, I can't grasp the logical sequence of your reasoning; it's more like some kind of reaction to the reasoning of old ladies near the entrance. You don't know what we export; look at the reports. You don't like chemistry; it's everywhere now; what's there to discuss? You don't like the Maidan; you don't like this, you don't like that... Well, this is already a certain state of mind when you don't like everything around you; I don't know how to help with that.
I won't argue about the exchange rate anymore; Maidan is Maidan; let it make you feel better.
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