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Indeed, it's fascinating reading! The guy has a rich imagination; he should write novels :D But here again, wishful thinking is being presented as reality. IMHO: the scenario is unlikely, and now everything doesn't depend on Yanukovych. But let's see, let's see...
In other words, the scenario described by Chipstone was likely considered as one of the possible options, but they didn't bet on it; they were working on several options simultaneously. In the end, this particular option worked out.
There was evidence that Putin knew two months ago that the agreement in Vilnius would not be signed and that street unrest would follow.