Arandora killed Shiva. Arandora herself, or any of the Yellows, or the Prince, or the Valkyrie could have done it. It could be anyone with equal probability.
Yashur could be Wolfram, the Prince's wife (who is cruel and cunning), the Margrave, the Executioner, or even Limion. With Limion, there's this possibility: the second Mafia killed Yashur on the first night, but was killed by Luna due to auto-redirection. For some reason, it seems to me that this is what happened - it was said that it would "make life easier" - i.e., no one will interfere in other people's lives with their accusations.
Now, regarding the two Limions in the notes. I tried to imagine what it would make sense to write to a fake Limion so that he would be more likely to believe it.
1) A fake Limion could hardly guess that the real Limion would write his note with an obvious hint about his role.
2) Therefore, it's not worth expecting cunning tricks from the second Mafia, such as "I'll say that Mona (our teammate) is not a Town member, they won't believe my note and will think that Mona is actually a Town member."
3) So, if the fake Limion wrote about Mona, then most likely the note was written by the first Mafia, and Mona herself could be either a Town member or a second Mafia member.
4) If the fake Limion wrote about Tox, then Tox could be a Mafia member, and this was an attempt to clear him (although this is somehow risky).
5) And finally, just a theory - the style of the note about Tox reminds me of Yashur, which aligns with the theory above that Yashur was Limion, which means the fake Limion wrote about Mona.
Well, something like that.
By the way, the note about the baths that Nebka received was most likely written by Tox; I remember him emphasizing this after that Mafia game with the Minotaur.
Execution options:
We can try to execute Ment, although I think the note is a fake.
We can analyze based on psychology, and here, among the active players, I don't see any Mafia (maybe Ursula), so I'm in favor of executing an inactive player - Nefel, Plesen, Neyra.
For now, let's execute Ment