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Mafia 71. Ancient World

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#312
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WHY is the probability that there are fewer than three Mafia members higher than 30%?
Because that's not how Mafia players play, unless they are very new to the game. Even if there are some newbies on the team, the more experienced players can offer some advice. Now, calculate the probability that there are many newbies on the Mafia team.
WHY isn't it you or Ara?
Not Ara. =)</