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Alright, folks. You want it, you got it. I hate making far-reaching conclusions so early in the game, but since you insist... Here's a breakdown of the first day, culminating in a list of suspects. But if I get blamed for anything after this, my death will be on your conscience.
Arandor is a confirmed innocent. However, at the beginning of the first day, he showed an enviable level of awareness, immediately stating that Yashur was Madame Garvenna. He was quite obviously hinting at the role ("I know better who Lyutik is here"). This probably led to his downfall. The following voted for Arandor: Mystir, Alexigl, Sezam, Vespyr, Lord Death. There's definitely a mafia member among them; I can only rule out Vespyr and Mystir.
Vespyr is not mafia. She immediately brought up suspicious evidence against Sezam, talked about a possible connection between Nebo and Sezam, and later said she didn't think Sezam was mafia (well, the evidence was against a non-mafia member). At the end of the day, she named Lord Death, Mystir, and Nebo as suspects.
Mystir actively argued with Arandor about Yashur's role and was the first to vote against him. She named Lord Death, Arandor, and Kitz Kitsunka as suspects.
Lord Death accused Mystir of being a serial killer (based on psychology), voted against her, then changed his vote to Arandor, and left it there. Given Mystir's mysterious death, he is very suspicious.
Sezam - I paid the most attention to her attacks on the offers (well, it's understandable why). Sezam was the first to vote for Warrior, then changed her vote to Arandor, then back to Warrior, starting a wave of votes for Warrior at the end. She said that Arandor and Kitz Kitsunka are not together and that Mystir is not mafia. Well, maybe she knows better. In my opinion, she's shady.
Kitz Kitsunka suspected Mona, Nebo, and Sezam, and attacked Vespyr. She accused Alex of spreading votes when he joined the vote with Mystir against Arandor. I'm inclined to trust her.
Nebo - he's vague. He linked evidence to Arandor, then "berbered" Vespyr. Vespyr suggested that Nebo and Sezam are in a pair, then Nebo voted for Sezam - I must say, at a time when Vespyr was clearly not in danger. In general, he's shady.
Mona defended Lord Death and Sezam and suspected Arandor and Kitz Kitsunka. She's more suspicious than not.
Alexigl said that Arandor and Kitz Kitsunka are in a pair, suspected Vespyr and Sezam. He supported Mystir's vote against Arandor. He often plays like this, but he's still suspicious.
Neyra Drake is an offer. Possibly a mafia fake, possibly an innocent with a tough real life.
Nyashechka Kawai - I can't say anything. She wasn't present on the first day.
In conclusion: Lord Death and Alexigl are the most suspicious, followed by Sezam, Nebo, and Mona. Neyra Drake and Nyashechka Kawai are unclear. Arandor is innocent, and Kitz Kitsunka is very likely innocent. Vespyr is not mafia.
It's never too late to start over again, to love the people that caused you pain(c)
God knows, how much I love
That place called Tobacco Road...(c)
God knows, how much I love
That place called Tobacco Road...(c)