What a frighteningly distant understanding of probability theory. The concepts are confused or there is manipulation of concepts: the probability of participating in a tournament and the probability of participating in a new round. Using probability coefficients less than 1 contradicts common sense. Otherwise, it means the following: someone who hasn't played may not play at all, and someone who has played may play again and again.
I perfectly understand what probability theory is. And I wrote here that, in fact, a player may not play at all in a year; anyone can draw this conclusion for themselves by simply reading the rules carefully. If you don't like this arrangement, just pass it by; I'm not forcing anyone to participate in the tournament.
