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It would be good if you could elaborate a bit on the essence of this phenomenon. I understand it this way: since we don't observe any traces of the existence of other civilizations, they don't exist.
I already wrote to Mortulus in this thread:
If you don't see a hedgehog, it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
They may be advanced enough to become invisible to the foolish people who might look at them with the same disdain we use when studying insects on our little Earth.
Furthermore, there may exist other forms of matter that simply don't exist on Earth, which means we cannot detect them. This means that extraterrestrial civilizations may be something completely beyond our comprehension. I would like to remind you that we still haven't seen magnetic or electric fields, although we can visually represent them and generally prove their existence. And before the nineteenth century (right? I might be mistaken), we didn't even know about any fields at all.
Of course, these are all armchair speculations, but we can't prove that it isn't true. Therefore, the probability that it is true exists, and it can be assessed as negligible or as something significant. I tend to believe the latter, that is, I think that this probability should not be ignored.