By the way, where does this confidence come from that the Sky is blue? Explain. Why not Spir?
Second, I'm basing it on the substitutions. It's unlikely that two mafia members would be eliminated in that situation; it's more likely to be townspeople. Silver confirms this with his role.
Third, if the killer gets lucky, Tox won't survive the night anyway, and if he doesn't, it doesn't really matter anyway.

Барон "Vampires"
Отдай свои прошлые сны,
В сомненьях себя обрети,
В бешеном танце душа кружится!
Не думай, что будет потом,
Здесь и сейчас мы живем,
Стань хоть на миг сам собой, слышишь!