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It's nonsense to compare Valeska and Tur-Sar based on the matchup between cavalry and archers. You need to evaluate who is more useful at the start. Obviously, Valeska will often have more archers at the start than any other hero. Since the early game revolves around archers, people choose Valeska (and I'm not even mentioning that ranged attacks are significantly enhanced). That's the whole logic. Tur-Sar has his own advantages; his tactics allow him to easily overcome ranged defenses, and a stack of spearmen is also effective. There's also the hero Orrin, who shouldn't be forgotten. And of course, Caitlin.
That's exactly what I'm trying to convey to everyone; you just expressed it very concisely. It's all exactly as you said. And Valeska's bonuses from the Ranged skill are better, both in the first week (when there are no cavalry units) and in the second week, when you acquire dwarven outposts and other structures, or powerful slow units (cavalry are guarding the ranged stack anyway). And considering that in the first, and even more so in the second week, you should try to switch to a "great hero," the choice becomes obvious.