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Arandor is writing some nonsensical stuff and isn't even trying to do anything, not even within the bounds of casual conversation. At the same time, he's letting Spir lose. I would kill him.
Lynx is acting strangely, not trying to understand the situation and defend himself with any arguments. + He's having a hard time getting votes, which suggests he's on the Mafia side.
Vish is on defense.
The Mafia block is, of course, a setup, not an attempt to block an Independent.
Recruitment works with 100% accuracy on everyone, every time, everywhere, so it needs to be used from the very beginning, because there WON'T be any indication in the newspaper of those who haven't been recruited.
It seems that Spir has a couple of votes from both Mafia players.