As for the 1782 damage, even in that case, you are still idealizing the situation. Your native damage there is (96+12*13)*1.5*1.5*2=1134. And the rest, as I assume, is elemental damage from 3 native Castles.

What?? I don't even have the skill for seeing elements, and I don't have any buildings constructed in the Castles (and besides, the damage from elemental chains is not added to the main damage in the logs, but appears as a separate line) (moreover, at that moment I only had one native Castle, I captured the other two later, in search of the "Explosion" spell)... there was a clear 1782, and with a bit of luck 5+, this probability is slightly higher than 0.075 (either you made a typo, or you want to say 7% chance of expert luck?? less than one hit out of ten??)... and why are you giving me mathematical formulas, it's better to just play... there are approximately 3 out of 5 hits with luck... And in general, the argument has reached a dead end, because I am telling you how it PRACTICALLY works in the game, and you are trying to force your theory on me.... the difference in approaches is really obvious...