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Because a navigator visited you? That's ridiculous.
It's just logic. It's certainly not a 100% certainty, but it's a very high probability. Personally, I can't imagine a newbie showing up on my forum and, with such a low Navigation skill, using it on me on the first night. There's no logic to it. I would use it on someone I've been communicating with for a long time. The same applies here. No one knows how I play, how often I'm online, so who would make such a move on the first night? Besides, the navigator didn't even bother to write a note, and based on the gameplay on my forum, only active players do that. It's a small detail, yes, but I build a lot on small details.