Tactics for the Swamp (Fortress).

Something is missing. Or is it rounding up?

Exactly, it's the _upper_ limit, and to remember it: the number of tens, considering the _incomplete_ ones.

I think that all invalid values simply go to the upper limit. That is, if there is a limit of 3 for 21 cows, then when the probability of 4 occurs, only 3 will die, as it should. Here, perhaps, we need to calculate differently. A(3) = 1 - A(0) - A(1) - A(2)

This is what was meant by the phrase "the probabilities of invalid values are summed with the probability for the largest permissible number." And the formula is equivalent (the sum of A(i) == 1), it's just the same thing, but from a different angle.

But you can divide it not only into 2 stacks.

Of course, but there will be many options... And so, we can assume that two optimal divisions in half, even if they are worse than one division into 3, will not be much worse.

Well, 20%, like the blindness of Unicorns, for example. And the number of deaths depends on the quantity. It's simple.

Hmm, now it's more difficult to get into Utopia. While it happens, dragons can easily eat the meat and switch to beef... (and it should destroy about half of all Gorgons, which is an overhead for level 7, and it is not always possible to divide, I think the developers didn't just take such a model for nothing).

Added 7 minutes ago

Maybe. This happens constantly in poker :D

There is a higher social level, unlikely options can be cut off by passing... And, if I remember correctly, taking into account the change of cards, a royal flush occurs about 1/10000 (and something suggests that it is even higher, correct me if I'm wrong, only 1/650000 was found, but this is immediately). Which is approximately the probability of 5 out of 10 Gorgons (in a purely binomial situation).

Besides, you can see other people's combinations. Which can affect the subjective assessment.