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That's a strange theory. Take this point, for example:
3. He's not a Mafia member because Hermit is.
What makes you think Hermit is a Mafia member? I'm only 100% sure about the roles of a couple of players right now, but you're confidently stating that half of the Mafia are dead. No, I would be glad if they were really dead, but I'm curious why you think they are definitely Mafia?