Мафия 32. Asylum

Messages from Gil4
Please, be more specific about what the chances are. Yesterday evening, I outlined quite specific moves. What will happen after the alliance breaks. There are no chances of winning there. Either it's an excuse from the doctor-killer: "there are chances, but I won't say what they are, but I need to keep my reputation intact for the vote on Jose," or it's just an approximate forecast that turns out to be incorrect.

1) Well, let's assume we execute Wisstrit.
Judging by the game of Mafia, tonight either the doctor-killer or Mana was wounded.
If the pharmacist doesn't heal him (which would essentially be a betrayal), after the execution, we'll have a situation of 7-1(2 if the surgeon was wounded)-4-1 if the doctor was wounded, or 7-2(3)-4-0 if Mana was wounded. We continue to trust the Mafia and help them. The surgeon will successfully recruit with a probability of 13-21%, and even then, he might encounter a block, and judging by the killers' game, this is very likely. :)
It's not difficult to calculate the possible scenarios after the 5th night... (the killers will either play along with the Mafia and eliminate a peaceful player, or they will continue to try to do something to the Mafia... they won't see victory in any case; the Mafia, judging by the game, has already identified most of the roles and will kill another killer or Mana), but all of this depends on the fact that the Mafia won't betray us. But in the end, we have a situation where the advantage is in the hands of the Mafia, and they will voluntarily give it up... maybe, but it's unlikely... if you convince me that the Mafia won't betray us, I will vote against Wisstrit. ;)

2) Let's assume we execute Jose. If he is Ranodar, most likely, after the execution, we will have a situation of 7-2(3)-3-1(0). The Mafia is confused. The doctor-killers have a chance. This situation is called "adding fuel to the fire." What will happen next depends on the skill of each team. But if it turns out that Jose is not Ranodar, he is saved. The "alliance" is broken. And what will happen next is also unknown (too many combinations and possibilities).
Luck will play a significant role here.

And we are faced with a choice:
- trust the Mafia based only on your words.
- hope that the City won't be betrayed.
I would say that these chances are equal.