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Let's face it. The bad guys know their own. They now know who the guard is. The composition of the mafia is now partially understood. Yes, they might run into a cop or a guard. But otherwise, they will recruit. The probability of this is high enough to take it into account. Besides, they still have several nights ahead.
8 stable, non-aggressive roles. One has been recruited, two are dead. There are 5 remaining, three of whom cannot be recruited because they are in pairs. This leaves only two possible candidates for recruitment.