You're acting like a Mafia member, making baseless accusations: "That guy in the corner, he's Mafia!" You eliminate a player whose role is quite obvious (show me another candidate for a guard, and I might consider it), and you refer to "80% probability that Gil is Mafia."
Okay, let's listen to your probability. Question: where did the other 20% go? And now, are we supposed to ignore them when an obvious candidate for Mafia refers to the remaining 80%?
1/5 chance that he's a guard. Lizard has never been Mafia, what about the snails?
Gil, Hossi, and Naira. Three Mafia members, haha.
Except the ones we've made