I doubt the town will satisfy your intuition, so you'll end up feeling guilty.
I wouldn't, for example. I'd rather have a bird in the hand than another calculation of probabilities, which you throw around in every game regardless of faction affiliation.
Another calculation of probabilities, thanks to which you're going to vote for Elephant, because "lol, defense"? :) That's also a calculation of probabilities – comparing the number of players with defense among the Mafia and the Villagers. So, you shouldn't say that you disagree only because of that. Because, according to that logic, you should vote for Rimpel if you believe in that clue (and judging by your posts, you do), because the execution of Elephant is a consequence of the calculation of probabilities. :/



