Wicc
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Argument: on day 113 the needed scroll for Slow (to take the Necropolis) was found. At the end of week 4, two scrolls were found, with Air Elemental and Fly (for Expert Air Magic). That's it. Up to day 221, I think no more scrolls are found — they don't appear. A bullseye.
I believe this simply does not occur in regular games.
Specify the alternatives. Not take those scrolls? Take some others? What's the percentage for an honest player to find them?
You see the weakness in your position — you're spreading yourself too thin. A casual viewer will read this discussion, see that a lot of arguments have been refuted, many called into question, many dismissed as uninformative, and so on.
What opinion will they form? Right — that fellow is up to something fishy. Because they won't delve into all the arguments and counterarguments; they won't even remember them. So a general impression will form — the prosecution's position is weak on almost all points. And where it isn't weak, the defense simply hasn't gotten around to showing that weakness.
Court trials last for months or years precisely because people meticulously collect, sort, and analyze all those small percentages. A normal person would get bored just reading the table of contents. And for a professional lawyer to work with this requires excellent memory, pedantry, concentration, and mental endurance.
But that's their profession, for which they are paid large sums — they can put in the work. It's hard to expect this from members of the AK and other HeroesWorld players. They'll most likely skip a significant part of the discussion, focusing their attention either on the most vivid episodes or on those that confirm their personal point of view.
So for your point of view to replace theirs in their minds, you need to emphasize vivid episodes. Not 30++ points at 2-3% each, but 4-5 points that are 20% each. Otherwise, you'll simply be flooded with a breakdown of details, which is essentially what I did here.
Because of the presumption of innocence, such a course of action is a plus for the defense and a minus for the prosecution.
