Which faction poses the greatest challenge for the Dwarves?

Retribution deals +25% damage (with 5 morale). It's perfect for Orcs.
Also, without Logistics, Orcs will typically be 3-4 levels behind (there is a Mentor, of course, but not always).
In general, I believe that we can only talk about racial matchups based on the map (at least because a Dwarf can arrive with Armageddon before you manage to research Anti-Chaos, and an Orc can arrive in the 2nd or 3rd week with War Machines).

But your Orcs will die under attacks like flies. Without Chain Lightning, you can't count on winning in the late game. And 25% damage looks good only with Paladins; with Orcs, it's noticeable, but not by much.
Since when does Logistics affect level in the late game? If you're talking about a rush, that's a completely different story; you don't need Chain Lightning, and you can take Logistics. But in the late game, it's useless for Orcs to take Logistics. And you can still manage to research Anti-Chaos, at least on the same Outlands. If you play without Chain Lightning and Anti-Chaos, and even take Logistics, Orcs have no chance of winning in the late game.
However, here's a universal method for fighting against Light and Chaos: take Ice Shield, Luck, Barbarian Luck, and as many artifacts as possible that increase Luck and Magic Resistance. Then the wolves are fed, and the sheep are safe.