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I still think they are different, as I know them personally.
Regarding Letos, I'll say this: a random hero has from 60 to 105 mana. When he gets 60 mana, it's a fairly average hero; when he gets 105, he's the strongest hero on the server (Orson, for example, immediately becomes a loser against him, etc.). So, calculate what the chances are when they have 75 and 90 mana, respectively.