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So, here's my analysis of the situation.
1) The Expert investigates – (is the dead Witch?)
2) The Baker protects – Hostora??? (Or the dead Ple-sen, or the one who killed the Lizard, or the Lizard himself)
3) The Snow Woman blocks – Gura
4) The Slacker goes for a walk – (the dead Kyle)
5) The Elf throws snowballs – at the Lizard? Or is the Lizard himself the Mafia? (still some doubts here)
6) The Evil Snowman throws snowballs (the order of their turns is determined randomly) – (Nay is dead… CASH is dead.)
7) The Cunning Elf throws snowballs (see point 5)
8) The Chief Elf throws snowballs (see point 5)
9) The Baker revives – Taco (THANK YOU SO MUCH!!!!)
So, the Lizard had Night Defense… He could have been the Baker or the Mafia. Or he was protected – and died from the Mafia. There are no other possibilities. But the carrot and the bucket remain… even if it's punctured… I'm leaning towards the Baker:(
Therefore, there are 2 or 3 people alive in the Mafia… which is still a lot.