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I tested taking the Medusa Lair on the Bog map during the first week.
It consistently works to take the Medusa Lair on day 8 with a group stack, fully protecting against morale and Medusa abilities.
Hero: Westan or Tazar, level 5, no magic, army: 2 Sylphs, 4 Basilisks, 9 Flies, 40 Gnolls, and 20-25 group Lizards.
Losses: 4 Basilisks, 9 Flies, 10-24 Gnolls (but more often 10). Instead of Basilisks, you can use a tanky unit from another castle (Golems, Gnomes).
I wanted to post a description on the forum, but opinions differed: some say it's a normal trade, others say it's not worth it.
What do you think?
Off-topic, of course, but the whole conversation about bets and odds is quite frivolous. Everyone knows a way to consistently make money on bets and wagers, but gambling and mathematical talent are secondary here.
Please don't be too offended if I've upset anyone (I have a habit of doing that :().