Round table

Freebies, S&P 500! Portugal will pass (85%), Ukraine (75%), Russia (100%), and France (95%). If we believe this data, then 0.85 x 0.75 x 1.00 x 0.95 = 0.605625, rounding up to 60%. Oelm has a 40% chance, which means that by betting 500, Oelm will win 750. In my opinion, the probability of victories (especially Russia) is overestimated. I think Portugal has an 80% chance (0.8); Ukraine 0.6; Russia 0.7; France 0.8. The probability of four events is 0.2688. It turns out that Cobra has approximately 3 times less chance of winning, according to my data. Therefore, in order for Oelm to get 500, he needs to bet 1500.