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I think Kyle definitely belongs to the mafia, because he's persistently trying to frame me.
I won't go into too much detail about the logic behind the evidence he's gathered; it seems to exist for each piece individually. But at least compare them to each other.
How can a very simple clue (my nickname) and a much less noticeable one, like Ank-Morpork, be combined in one murder? And there's also the river... he really stretched it, pulling that clue out of thin air.