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It depends on how long the game lasts... but you definitely need to eliminate the Mage early on. Mini-artifacts that grant resistance – that's the end for Chaos (unless, of course, the Amulet of Skill is nowhere to be found). In general, I don't even know, but 20 knowledge points equal a lot of resistance. If you play into the late game, Chaos's chances of success approach 0. However, you can surprise the Mage with summoning magic or something else!