VDV_forever
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I conducted a small test on the beginning of a siege, using a recent replay as an example. Out of 30 attempts, the wall was weakened approximately equally at locations 2 and 4. It was never possible to completely break through the wall. In one case, the lightning spell had no effect on the defending dwarves. This suggests that each event is considered separately and occurs with a set of probabilities. Therefore, it will be very difficult to reproduce a complex battle, where luck played a role 2-3 times in an official tournament, and this brought victory, even with a very large number of attempts.
With best regards, Ergon.
Good day!
Regarding the walls:;
http://handbookhmm1.narod.ru/10.html
In the case of the dwarves, this is indeed a probabilistic event, and the probability is 25%.
http://handbookhmm1.narod.ru/7.html
You need to test the battle itself, focusing on the chance of morale and luck, which directly depend on the damage dealt in combat (Damage) during certain actions. Using magic will change the nature of the battle, and consequently, the outcome of these factors may also change. However, morale and luck do not directly depend on the use of magic!
Sincerely, VDV_forever