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Good day, dear AlexSPl!
Please allow me to thank you for your assistance in studying such an important issue in Heroes 1, as morality, luck, and damage.
Today, I set aside a couple of hours at work and conducted 3 sessions (reloading the game by exiting and re-entering) with 10 battles each (15 in the 3rd), using direct battles without any software assistance (LaOracle). Unfortunately, I didn't have enough time for the rest. But even with this data, it's becoming interesting; I suggest you take a look.
My material is also not finished, but it may be of some interest to our common cause! ;)
Indeed, morality, luck, and damage have one of the most complex patterns to understand.
Specifically, in this case, which we are testing (thanks to Fireball!), I can say with a high degree of certainty that, in addition to the session itself, the chance of luck for peasants can be determined by the damage inflicted by the catapult on archers.
I apologize for the messy handwriting; I didn't have time to tidy it up. I hope you can make sense of it :o
I hope you understand my scribbles in the table :o
P.S. I plan to refine all of this and conduct at least 10 sessions with 20 battles each, and then I will send you the results by email.
Sincerely, VDV_forever