In one of the games, my opponent had 3 Conservatories and 3-4 Hives on his home base. And even then, I think he shouldn't have lost, considering his gameplay, but he simply forgot to transfer the army from his third hero on the second day, and as a result, he lost almost everything to the Gold Golems (he didn't bother to resurrect units because of his home base's secondary skill). That's why he ultimately lost, and that's the main reason. That's why I'd give him a 10% chance of winning in that situation. Everything else is just details.