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My intuition tells me that the more powerful the armies are on both sides, the more likely Defense is to win.
Since we've already started a serious off-topic discussion, I'll share something. About 7-8 years ago, I created a map for a 1-on-1 game. The idea was that in the end, two main heroes would meet with a large number of units (4 identical castles built over a month and a half + hidden bases of levels 4, 5, 6, and 7, with 1, 1, 2, and 3 units each). So, we played this map about 100 times, and I don't remember a single instance where a hero with low attack won. A hero with low defense sometimes won. If anyone is interested, I can tell you which castles are the strongest when there's an equal number of units of the same type, and which are definitely the weakest, and which pairs are the most interesting to play with.