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On one of the standard maps, the chances are equal; it depends on how each player develops, what moves they make, and what they manage to gather. With random map generation, there's a 40% chance of victory for the Haven faction under one condition (the random generation includes Griffons from the Conservatory), and a 60% chance for the Necropolis faction due to their ability to amass skeletons (to catch up with the first-level armies). If the Conservatory doesn't appear, the chances for Haven decrease significantly, to 15% versus 85%. This has all been tested and confirmed. What else can be added: Necropolis is generally the strongest faction in the game (this is my personal opinion), and Haven can only win either at the beginning or in the early-mid game, because later on, 3,000 skeletons are an unstoppable force, and if there are also Galtarans, I won'