A program for determining luck/morality in Heroes 3!

Why not? It happens. For example, in the "War of the Strongest" and "Capture" tournaments, I even looked for such cells... and found them. It's just that it doesn't work in every battle. Therefore, this is just as valid a hypothesis about the morale mechanic as any other.

All these hypotheses, of course, have a right to exist, but everything has an explanation, and the time interval influenced the morale outcome...
Okay, let's not argue. It's up to each player to generate as they see fit!

Besides, when replaying the battle from your save, my sorcerer generated a different cast. With the same actions from the snipers (always pressing "Shield"), the sorcerer generated:
1. Bloodlust.
2,3,4,5 times: Haste
6 times: Slow! :smile03: :)

I think I've clarified things for the esteemed invisible! In your example, IMHO, you pressed DEFENSE in vain. You should have moved away; then, perhaps, Stone Skin would have been active all the time, because snipers don't have enough defense, and by pressing the spacebar, you added it anyway, so that's what happened... This is IMHO, and I'm not 100% sure about what I wrote...

It's interesting that "good" and "bad" morale are implemented in two procedures, while luck is in one.

This is indeed interesting. It seems to me that the game developers simply forgot to make negative luck... i.e., -3 = -2 = -1 = 0, it doesn't matter... This made the spell MISFORTUNE, the Archdevil's ability, etc., meaningless...

An interesting and important point for me. Why is focusing on expert marksmanship more important than focusing on expert luck (leadership)?

The answer, it seems to me, is obvious. Damage is never superfluous, and defense is defense. As can be seen from the video, morale was triggered there consistently and without any leadership! Mullich's specialty doesn't seem critical in the conserve, but in a battle with titans, Mullich would have helped save an angel, but with basic marksmanship instead of expert, the snipers' damage would have been different, and it would most likely have taken more turns, although expert leadership is expensive, so it's unclear what would have brought more benefit... But one thing is certain: Mullich would have struggled longer in the conserve; it's not a fact that he would have killed 30 griffons in 2 shots... It needs to be tested...