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Regarding the battle against Jalib-Helmar, I'll say this: to win there with Jalib, you need to try very hard, and even then, you can only win if you put almost all the mages in one stack. And even then, the probability of winning is no more than 10%. As for Ossir-Karli, Ossir can have cursed spellcasters and a favorable attack bonus. (In principle, one stack of harpooners can be killed before his turn). So, it's not 100% either, even though it's high, it's not 100%.