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If two experienced players are playing, I think the starting town and hero matter... I've seen Шахти defeat Кирюха many times. And in general, Кирюха rarely takes the Academy early in the game... But for Шахти... Sometimes, Шахти already has a well-developed town with an Angel on day one after upgrading the Troglodyte town... and takes all the available Gnomish Mines on day one. Шахти forever!!!
But in general, the question is indeed not very well-formulated. The outcome of the game is determined not only by the players' factions but also by many other factors. For example, one player might find 4 Griffon Conservatories, while the other finds none. In some ways, it's a matter of luck.
Where do we go?
Where do we end up when we save the world?
Where do we end up when we save the world?