So, if a hero has 5 units of luck and no special skills, then there is a 50% chance that creatures will deal x damage. With a 50% chance, the damage will be 2x.
What is the expected damage with 5 units of luck? That is, what is the average damage? To do this, we take the damage from each attack and multiply it by the probability of it occurring. The result is 50%*x + 50%*(2x) = 1.5x. In other words, the average damage increases by a factor of 1.5 with 5 luck, relative to an unlucky creature, all other things being equal. It is not difficult to calculate that with 3 luck, the expected value will be 1.3x, and with constant luck (without the elven one, which, of course, is incorrect), the average damage will be 2x.
These 2x should be compared with 1.3x or 1.5x, but not just with x.
It is the same as with 1 unit, 2 units, 3 units, and 4 units – 100%, that is, x2. The only difference is in the probability of it occurring: 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%, respectively. The minimum, average, and maximum damage will always deal 100% (x2) with any luck (except for negative luck and luck that gives a bonus to damage)