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There isn't a clear rule for this issue that would allow us to conclude that one castle is definitively stronger than the other, because, in my opinion:
1) A lot depends directly on the player's skill (I don't think anyone would argue with that...), and saying "let's assume the players are equally skilled" is simply not realistic.
2) It also depends on how balanced the scenario is, i.e., the map itself.
3) The magic guild can also play a key role; for example, Armageddon at the Conflux will significantly influence the outcome of such a competition.
4) Regarding the monsters, the Conflux only wins against the Castle with one unit – the Storm Elemental.
5) The Grail can potentially turn the tide in favor of the Conflux, but the chance of that happening is too small, in my opinion.
As everyone understands, this argument is not sufficient to prove that the Human Castle is weaker than the Conflux.
Sincerely.
"Единственное, что можно сказать с уверенностью об удаче - она изменит..."