Let's be honest, there isn't a single person here who is 100% sure of anything, except for the character Yaschur. This game is essentially about guessing and about what will pop into someone's head. Even now, the picture could be completely wrong due to a misinterpretation of some small detail. The probability of error here is at least 50% for almost any action, except for very straightforward ones like Jack's.
It's impossible to interpret anything here with certainty! I realized this on the very first day of the game after reading the first newspaper.
Yes, a roulette has a higher chance of correctly determining who did what than these reflections, lol.
The realities of the HvM mafia.